Breeders' Cup: The Juvenile

Held seven months apart, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile poses as the prelude to the Kentucky Derby - the opening scene of the epic drama that is the Triple Crown trail. In this edition of the Breeders’ Cup, the Juvenile victor will grace the winner’s circle under the twin spires with hopes of returning in May. However, many of those aspirations do not translate into reality. Uncle Mo triumphed in the Juvenile over Churchill Downs in 2010, but was scratched the Thursday of the Derby. In the 2009 installment of the Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird, who crossed the wire last beaten 8 ¼ lengths in the Juvenile, showed the other eighteen competitors his heels as the highest price in the Derby since Donerail.

CREATIVE CAUSE:

This grey son of Giant’s Causeway is coming off an imposing win in the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita. He has defeated the top two year olds on the southern California racing circuit, which will play a factor in the Juvenile. In the Norfolk, Creative Cause settled in a comfortable second behind Ruler of Dubai’s solid pace. I was overwhelmed by the extraordinarily relaxed running style Creative Cause. Into the turn, he came up to challenge the leader, and demolished his foes into the lane without urging from jockey Joel Rosario.

The colt’s only loss out of his three starts came in the form of a second place in the Del Mar Futurity. Creative Cause sat slightly farther off a pace with splits similar to the Norfolk’s fractions, and was taken wide around the turn. At the top of the stretch, Majestic City insignificantly drifted into Creative Cause from the inside. Creative Cause made a strong bid for the lead, and got up between horses in the closing stages of the race. He battled for the win with Drill to his outside, and the chestnut Majestic City on the rail. Under left-handed urging, Majestic City jostled his two opponents badly, forcing Creative Cause to withdraw from contention.

DRILL:

In 2009, the Bob Baffert and Mike Pegram team was victorious with that year’s champion two-year-old male, Lookin’ at Lucky. This year, they are represented well with Drill, who won this year’s Del Mar Futurity just as Lookin’ at Lucky did two years ago.

By the late Lawyer Ron, and out of a Storm Cat mare, Drill is likely to be third best behind Creative Cause and Union Rags in this year’s installment of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Last time out, he placed to Creative Cause in the Norfolk, beaten 3 ¼ lengths. In this race, affirmed his abilities by finishing 3 ¼ lengths ahead of every other competitor, and was second best that day. These horses contending in the Juvenile are worthy adversaries amongst each other, displaying quality throughout the race.

Drill got the nod in the Del Mar Futurity despite being jostled badly by Majestic City in the final yards of the race. This was an impressive performance when you consider the fact that his regular rider, Martin Garcia, lost the whip at the sixteenth pole.

UNION RAGS:

The bay son of Dixie Union is indubitably the star of this Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, crossing the wire in triumph in all three of his starts. His counterparts could only see a distant image of this mighty colt with a commanding presence, for he has won his starts by a combined 14 ¼ lengths. Union Rags thrust himself into the two year old spotlight with his astounding victory over a sloppy track in the Saratoga Special.

He confirmed his talent in the GI Champagne Stakes on a fast track with a 5 ¼ length win. In the Champagne, his regular rider, Javier Castellano, settled him into fifth behind Power World’s fast pace. Castellano asked the colt for run around the half, and the pair gradually worked their way to the lead.  Into the stretch, Union Rags got caught behind horses. Castellano searched for an opening on the rail, and, to no avail, he could not find daylight.  Taking him back to the outside, Castellano found running room, and sent his juvenile star for the lead.   Union Rags blasted away from the field, left in his wake of brilliance.

Bunny at the Breeders' Cup! The Works

Finale to the outside; Sidney's Candy on the rail

Sidney's Candy coming off the turf course

Bunny at the Breeders' Cup! Working Girl



Bunny at the Breeders' Cup! Day One

Hi Everyone,

I will be posting these video blogs from the Breeders' Cup throughout this week.  I've been having technical difficulties with my camera, but have it all straightened out.  I apologize for these issues which keep you from seeing all the great things I saw this morning.

Watching Cambina with Julien Leparoux aboard on the Turf course

Breeders' Cup: The Sprint

In its previous runnings, the Breeders' Cup Sprint has provided us with a remarkable performance.  This year's edition is arguably the highest in quality throughout the field, headlined by the flaming chestnut, Euroears.  He is horseracing's latest 'Iron Horse', campaigning at the sport's highest level at the age of seven.  From the beaches of Del Mar, to the glorious Meydan Racecourse, Euroears has shown his fast talent.  In the Breeders' Cup Sprint, Euroears continues his quest into the record books, poised to give a performance to remember.

AMAZOMBIE:

Coming off a victory in the Ancient Title Stakes, Amazombie is poised to make a splash in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Mike Smith guided the bay son of Northern Afleet from off the pace to success with a spectacular stretch run which exhibited his authoritative finishing kick. In the Ancient Title, Amazombie held off Irrefutable after a series of respectable third places. He finished 1 ¾ lengths behind Euroears in the Bing Crosby Stakes which was completed in track record time for six furlongs at Del Mar. Amazombie won the Los Angeles Handicap, but was moved to third through for interference. His last official win leading up to the Ancient Title was in the 7 ½ furlong Tiznow Stakes consisting of eleven horses. Last out before the Tiznow, he was the winner of the GII Potrero Grande against a quality field.

Amazombie has had a consistent 2011 campaign against quality horses, and must be regarded as a top contender in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. In the Sprint, I anticipate Amazombie to be third best for the fourth time this year.

BIG DRAMA:

The Florida-bred son of Montbrook swept last year’s installment of the Breeders’Cup Sprint, and looks to be a back-to-back champion. Big Drama seems as if he could succeed in this quest, but I am hesitant to give him my full backing. He has had only two starts this year, eight months apart. His four length track record setting victory in the GIII Mr. Prospector was an undeniably impressive performance, but his next start came eight months later in the Whippleton Stakes at Calder. This was against a four horse field, and was the solid comeback effort that I expected. However, he has not faced the top sprinters this year. Off what I have seen from Big Drama, I predict a second place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

EUROEARS:

This seven year old son of Langfuhr has had a solid, consistent year consisting of four starts. Euroears has won two of those starts, and placed once in the Dubai Golden Shaheen, and most recently finished eighth and last in the Vosburgh Invitational Stakes to a bad start. His performance in the Vosburgh should be considered a throw-out race. Euroears is easily my top selection for the Sprint due to his assortment of impressive performances against top horses.

In his final victory leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, Euroears won in phenomenal fashion with a track record time for six furlongs on Del Mar’s PolyTrack surface. Not only did he shatter the previous record, but he also ran his five furlong split in :55.91. Euroears shows early speed by setting a blistering pace. As he demonstrated here in the Bing Crosby, he can maintain that velocity in full until the end of the race. 

GIANT RYAN:

Coming off a ½ length victory in the Vosburgh Invitational, Giant Ryan is obviously an improving horse. The five year old son of Freud holds a six race winning streak spanning from the Optional Claiming level to a GI. He was the first horse out of the gates for this year's installment of the Vosburgh, and proceeded to wire the eight horse field. With two Graded Stakes to his credit, he will likely be at low odds for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, and should be found somewhere on the pace.

Breeders' Cup: The Juvenile Fillies

Since the inaugural running of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, the Juvenile Fillies has been a deciding factor in choosing the Eclipse Award Champion Two-Year-Old Filly.  At the 1984 Eclipse Awards, Outstandingly, received the accolade of Champion Two-Year-Old Filly.  Interestingly, she placed in the Juvenile Fillies but was moved to first through the disqualification of Fran’s Valentine.

Champions of racing history, such as Go For Wand, and Silverbulletday, have been crowned in the Juvenile Fillies.  Like most of the other Breeders’ Cup events, the Juvenile Fillies tends to be the deciding race for the division, beckoning the top two year olds from across the country.

The quality and depth of this year’s installment of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is worthy of high praise.  These four outstanding competitors should offer all racing fans an opportunity to witness future greats in the making.

MILLIONREASONSWHY:

There are a million reasons why Millionreasonswhy should be considered a top contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Out of her three start career, she has won twice, and placed once by a neck behind My Miss Aurelia in the Adirondack Stakes.  In that race, the two pulled ahead of the field by fourteen lengths.  Millionreasonswhy carried four more pounds than the winner in the GII event, but paired with My Miss Aurelia when she approached her.  Perhaps some blinkers may be order.  I feel that my sentimental choice from Sagamore Farm is the best horse in the race, but I am concerned that she did not pass My Miss Aurelia when it was apparent she had the ability to cross the wire first.

MY MISS AURELIA:

The juvenile fillies from the New York circuit certainly dominate their division this year.  My Miss Aurelia, who has raced exclusively in the Big Apple for her three race career, has never lost.  Last time out in the GI Frizette, she overwhelmed the field by 5 ½ lengths with a wire to wire effort. 

In this race, she not only gave jockey Corey Nakatani his sixth win of the day, but defeated impressive 9 ¾ length maiden winner, Stopshoppingmaria.  My Miss Aurelia, a bay daughter of Smart Strike should be anticipated to make, or settle on the pace in the Juvenile Fillies.  In the Frizette, she posted fast fractions of :22.64 for the quarter, and :46.02 for the half, and increased her speed into the stretch.  With the Frizette being run at one mile, the Juvenile Fillies distance of 1 ¹/₁₆ mile should not be an issue.   Though I believe Millionreasonswhy is the top horse in this category, I feel that My Miss Aurelia will likely come out the winner in the Juvenile Fillies.

STOPSHOPPINGMARIA:

This dark bay filly put herself on the radar with a 9 ¾ length victory in a six furlong maiden at Saratoga.  She set a hot pace with splits of :22.5 for the quarter, and :45.79 for the half.  In this race, Stopshoppingmaria exhibited her fluid stride.  It was her first time out after showing three lengths behind My Miss Aurelia in her first track appearance. 

In the Frizette, Stopshoppingmaria gave a notable second place effort that put her 3 ½ lengths ahead the other contenders.  She put in a solid performance at even odds despite stumbling out of the gate, and being jostled between horses.  Intriguingly, Stopshoppingmaria stumbled badly in her first ever start, resulting in another finish behind My Miss Aurelia.  I expect a top three finish from this auspicious daughter of More Than Ready in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

WEEMISSFRANKIE:

Weemissfrankie started off her three for three win racing career with a victory in a five furlong maiden at Del Mar.  Her final time for this race was :58.39 – just one third of a second off the track record set by Naturaliste eleven days later.  She stretched her running abilities to 1 ¹/₁₆ mile by winning the Oak Leaf Stakes.  Weemissfrankie confirmed that she will handle the conventional dirt surface in the Oak Leaf, run on Santa Anita’s new dirt track.  Indubitably, she is a talented filly, and I believe that Weemissfrankie will be the fourth best horse contending in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. 

Breeders' Cup: The Mile

The triumphs of turf milers this year have offered delicious nourishment for the history books. This year’s edition of the Shadwell Turf Mile, held during Keeneland’s FallStars weekend, was a mouth-watering entrée to be gobbled up by the historians. Witnessing firsthand these marvelous milers, such as Gio Ponti, Get Stormy and Sidney’s Candy, battle it out on a pristine fall day elevated my anticipation for the Breeder’s Cup Mile to a new high.

Gio Ponti

FRANKEL:

If his connections solidly point him towards the Breeders’ Cup, the obvious choice for the Mile is Frankel. Throughout his three year old campaign, it has been assumed that he would not be starting in the Mile. However, his connections recently stated that the Mile is a possibility for Frankel. If he is to start in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Frankel will likely adjust to the firm ground well, due to the fact that two of his wins early this year came on “good to firm” going. The bay colt, who has won all eight of his starts, has been kept at shorter distances throughout his career. I completely respect how trainer Sir Henry Cecil, and owner Khalid Abdulla have managed Frankel, having enough self-confidence to keep him at one mile rather than stretching him out the one and a half mile distance for the Classics. What restraint it must take to do this with such a phenom! Hats off!

The Welcome Mat is out for you, Frankel! America is warmly waiting for you!

For more information on Frankel, please refer to my two part series on this fantastic colt.

FRANKEL FEVER!  PART ONE

FRANKEL FEVER!  PART TWO:  THE BLOOD

GET STORMY:

The bay son of Stormy Atlantic looks to improve off his eleventh place in last year’s Mile. It seems as if he will follow up his remarkable previous year with another group of strong performances. Out of his seven starts this year, he has won two, and finished in the money in all but one which was his first race this year. Get Stormy’s first win of the year was the Maker’s Mark Stakes, a Grade I event, which consisted of a notable group of horses including Court Vision. The latter of the two came in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes against a massive field that he led from wire to wire. In the Shadwell Turf Mile, his most recent performance, he settled not far behind pacemaker, Sidney’s Candy, and overtook the lead at the top of the stretch. He ran on with such daunting power, but failed to hold off the brilliant rush from Gio Ponti.

I expect Get Stormy to be up near the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, as he has been in his previous starts. He appears as if he has a solid chance of finishing well in this year’s installment of the Mile.

GIO PONTI:

The Americans are well-represented in this year’s Mile, with Gio Ponti heading the“hometown heroes”. Though Gio Ponti has only had one victory since this time last year, he remains a powerful force in the landscape of the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Each race in which he has competed this year has been held at or above 1 ¼ miles, excluding his most recent start in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Of those four races, he came in second twice (both races were to Cape Blanco), third once, and fifth in the Dubai World Cup, which was his first start of the year.

Brought back to the one mile distance for the Shadwell Turf Mile, he excelled, displaying his devastating turn of foot. This race proved to be an ideal prep for him going into the Breeders’Cup. Christophe Clement, who trains the six year old son of Tale of the Cat, said that he will probably enter the Mile, though the Classic still was a possibility. Gio Ponti finished a strong second to Zenyatta in that race two years ago on Santa Anita’s synthetic ‘Pro-Ride’ surface. I would be hesitant to enter him in this year’s installment of the Classic due to the fact that he has never competed on conventional dirt.

As an additional note, upon my observation of him physically in the paddock prior to the Shadwell Turf Mile, this horse embodied the definition of speed. Comparable to a sleek, smooth, high-end sportscar, Gio Ponti is showroom perfection. 

 

 GOLDIKOVA:

Three-time Mile victor, Goldikova, goes for her fourth straight win in this Breeders’ Cup event. Having won two out of five starts in 2011, some believe that she is losing some of her form from the previous years.

However, Goldikova should remain the solid favorite for the Mile. In her three losses, she was defeated by Canford Cliffs, Immortal Verse, and Dream Ahead – all of which are impressive horses. To add to this, she never finished worse than second. Against Canford Cliffs, she was beaten by one length, as she was when facing Immortal Verse, and was only defeated by a head in the Qatar Prix De La Foret against Dream Ahead. This shows that her places have come by rather short margins. It also proves that she is aging gracefully by maintaining her high-level running style.

Goldikova is a true legend that garners complete respect from all who compete against her.

IMMORTAL VERSE:

The French filly, Immortal Verse, won an automatic berth in the Mile by crossing the wire first in the Prix Jacques Le Marois. In that race, she defeated champion miler, Goldikova, by one length with a time of 1:38.3. She will start next in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes against Frankel, and other top milers. In this high class contest, she will start from the outermost stall, gate ten, and will carry 121 pounds – fourteen less than the heavyweight three year old, Frankel. Her connections look forward a good pace that will likely be set by Frankel. The mile is embedded into her pedigree, being out of the half-sister to 1986 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, Last Tycoon. A top four finish should be anticipated from this fantastic filly that will hopefully attend the Breeders’Cup next month.

TURALLURE:

The grey son of Canadian Triple Crown winner, Wando, comes into the Mile off two consecutive victories in the Bernard Baruch Handicap, and Woodbine Mile respectively. The Bernard Baruch Handicap was his first Graded Stakes win. Interestingly, he carried six pounds less than second placer, Get Stormy, who suffered a cut above his right hock in the race.

Turallure displayed an off-the-pace running style in each of these races, often overcoming adversity in the final stages of these starts. In the Bernard Baruch, jockey Julien Leparoux took him five paths wide around the final turn. And in the homestretch of the Woodbine Mile, Leparoux angled his mount on the rail several paths wide.

I have conflicting thoughts regarding this colt, and am making him my longshot pick.

2011 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Longchamp, known to be one of the world’s most distinguished racetracks, sits on the banks of the Seine River in Paris.   The racetrack which holds over half the Group I’s in France is unparalleled by any other racetrack in its country.  Longchamp puts on display a genuine racecourse which is made up of four racetracks with an astonishing forty-six starting points.  It hosts the world’s second richest race on turf, which is the cherished Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.  Being the most important race in France, the Arc’s roster of champions is bountiful the turf’s greatest heroes such as Ribot, Sea Bird, Alleged, and All Along.  One of its most revered victor’s was Sea Bird’s four year old daughter, Allez France who was undefeated at the time she won the Arc.

Now thirty-seven years after Allez France prevailed at Longchamp, we look to an exceptional group of Thoroughbreds battling for a triumphant moment in one of the world’s most celebrated races.   

GALIKOVA:

Though they may be half-sisters, Goldikova and Galikova differ in appearance, personality, and running style.  Goldikova dominates the world at one mile, while Galikova performs her best at 1 ½ miles.  

The three year old Galikova steps up in a quest to become the first filly to win France’s most prestigious race in three years.  Galikova, with the same owner, trainer, jockey connections as her big sister, is very competitive at 1 ½ miles, which is the distance of the Arc.  Galikova has had a consistent year, finishing first in all but one start.

The Group I Prix Vermille at Longchamp was her last race leading up to the Arc.  In striking fashion, Galikova secured the victory with ease.  She came up from fourth in the six horse field to get the lead 110 yards out from the wire. Her winning margin for the 1 ½ mile contest was 2 ½ lengths.   To add to this remarkable performance, I always enjoy seeing a horse get a good trip over the grounds when handicapping races.

RELIABLE MAN:

Reliable Man has proven to be a reliable horse in his short career which consists of five starts.  His race record includes a solid ¾ length victory in this year’s Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby).  He has a strong running style, and has proven to be quite responsive to his jockey.  One of the multiple features I like about Reliable Man is the fact that he does not fight his rider in the early fractions of the race.  He will have GeraldMosse in the irons for the 1 ½ mile Arc on Sunday.

My only concern regarding this colt is that he does not take a liking to a firm track.  His only loss came on a firm turf course rated as Good/Soft.  My hope with Reliable Man is that the course at Longchamp will come up fast on Arc day so we can see Reliable Man face these other impressive horses at his best.

SARAFINA:

Sarafina has been the long-time favorite for this year’s running of the Arc, but currently stands at 4-1 after drawing the thirteen hole.   Only two winners in the past eight years have arrived in the winners’ circle after breaking from a post position wider than the eighth stall. 

This bay filly by Refuse to Bend (IRE), won last time out in the Qatar Prix Fox against fellow Arc contender, Hirunco D’Amour, who represents Japan.  In the Group II Qatar Prix Fox at Longchamp, Sarafina proved that she is not afraid to break through small holes.  Small openings may very likely come before Sarafina in the Arc, which boasts a large field.  She has won each of her past three starts, only being beaten once in her first race of the year. 

The Alain De Royer-Dupre trainee who exhibits a tremendous turn of foot had an unlucky trip in last year’s installment of the Arc, which landed her a solid third place behind Workforce.  Entering the first turn, she was boxed in tightly, and jostled badly.  Sarafina came on late in the lane, but could not be a challenge to the top two finishers.

SNOW FAIRY:

Snow Fairy will play a huge roll in this year’s Arc coming off two impressive second places which makes me anticipate an exceptional performance from this four year old filly.  It seems that this daughter of Intikhab will love the 1 ½ mile distance, finishing a gaining second to So You Think in the Irish Champion Stakes in her last start leading up to the Arc. 

She placed to Midday in the Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes in the race previous to the Irish Champion Stakes.  In that race, she was placed in the rear by Frankie Dettori, who was riding her for the first time.  The field became compact after the pacemaker, Barefoot Lady, slowed the pace at Goodwood.  Into the final turn, Dettori had no choice but to take Snow Fairy wide around the six horse field.  Midway down the lane, he cut her to the inside where she would cross the wire two lengths behind Midday. 

SO YOU THINK:

This five year old New Zealand-bred son of  High Chaparral defeated Snow Fairy last time out in the Group I Irish Champion Stakes by three lengths.  So You Think, who was one of the three Aidan O’Brien trainees in this race, had the victory in hand from the start.  He was placed in a strong second by Seamie Heffernan, who has ridden So You Think in his past two starts.  Roderic O’ Connor set the pace three lengths ahead So You Think, who had settled 2 ½ lengths ahead Snow Fairy and Frankie Dettori with three furlongs to cover.  Into the lane, So You Think annihilated Roderic O’ Connor, but Snow Fairy chased at his heels.  At the wire, So You Think led by only ½ length to clench his eighth Group I victory. 

So You Think defeated last year’s Arc winner, Workforce, by ½ length in the Group I Coral-Eclipse Stakes, which was his start prior to the Irish Champion Stakes.  Workforce is also one of the leading Arc contenders this year.

I have no doubt that So You Think will enjoy the 1 ½ mile distance of the Arc, but am concerned that Snow Fairy, may surpass him in the homestretch, having more ground to cover.  Snow Fairy seemed to quicken in the closing yards of the Irish Champion Stakes, rather than maintaining the speed she showed mid-stretch.

TREASURE BEACH:

Treasure Beach, who won this year’s Irish Derby, comes into the Arc off a neck victory in the Grade I Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park. His race record for this year also boasts a second place a head behind Pour Moi in the Investec Derby.    Treasure Beach will likely be placed near the pace by regular rider, Colm O’Donoghue in the Arc.  The bay colt will break from the seventh stall – in the middle of the sixteen horse field.  Hopefully, he will have a quick break so he can settle into his desired spot near the lead.

WORKFORCE:

Last year’s Arc winner has crossed the wire first in one out of three starts this year, but has finished second in the other two:  the King George IV & Queen Elizabeth Stakes to Nathaniel, and the Coral-Eclipse Stakes to So You Think.   His most recent start was the King George IV & Queen Elizabeth Stakes.  He had the ability to win, but could not cross the wire first because of the ground he had lost drifting wide.  Not knowing the reason why he drifted so wide, it concerns me to see him bear out in his start leading up to the Arc.

Workforce has maintained his level of talent from last year, giving an impressive second place only ½ length behind So You Think.  If this colt gives a similar performance to his run in last year’s Arc, where he pushed through a small hole between horses, he will be in the midst down the homestretch.

The field exhibits star-quality racehorses from gate one all the way to sixteen.  Many of the horses entered are worthy of a win in this significant race.  Attempting to predict the order of finish in race with this many horses is challenging, because anything is a probability.  However, I expect Snow Fairy to be the winner of this year’s Arc after handicapping this race.  She seems to be an improving filly, and has come close to defeating So You Think at 1 ¼ miles.  With the extra quarter mile, she should have enough time to get to the wire first.  The other top finishers would likely be So You Think, and Galikova.